Will Falling Demand for Sustainable Palm Oil Pose a Threat to Orangutans
- Demand for certified sustainable palm oil is falling according to a new report from New Foresight
- Certified Sustainable Palm Oil or CSPO has long been claimed to have been effective in protecting forests and orangutans
- What will a reduced demand for CSPO mean for orangutans?
- Will the trade deal between Indonesia and the EU open the flood gates to uncertified "orangutan killing palm oil" entering the EU?
Indonesia's forest fires threaten a third of world's wild orangutans
The Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs affirmed recently that the Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) will benefit key national commodities, including palm oil, footwear, coffee, furniture, agricultural and fishery products, as well as telecommunications equipment.
As Southeast Asia chokes on haze caused by illegal land clearing for Indonesian palm oil and timber industries, the real test of the EU-Indonesia trade deal will be palm oil as observed by Fadhil Hasan in the EU Observer.
“Upon entry into force, 1.9 million tonnes of crude and refined palm oil will enter the EU tariff-free, rising to 2.479 million tonnes from the ninth year.”
The caveat here is the sticky issue of sustainability standards where the requirements of the EUDR may yet choke tariff free flow of Indonesian palm oil into the EU.
As Fadhil Hasan opined:
“One hurdle remains: ratification. Views within Indonesian industry are not uniform. Some sectors would prefer that ongoing WTO disputes be resolved and that certain EU measures, including aspects of the Renewable Energy Directive, be brought into conformity with international obligations before the agreement is signed. These concerns are legitimate.”
Aside from the Indonesian palm oil industry's view on open market access for palm-based biofuels, the industry could face a bigger obstacle in open market access under the IEU-CEPA if the EU decides to impose the criteria of legality on imports of palm oil from Indonesia.
According to this report on the legality of Indonesian palm oil published by Client Earth:
"Corruption has emerged as a systemic challenge in this context. To its credit, the Indonesian government has developed a detailed statutory framework to address the systemic social, environmental and regulatory issues plaguing the Indonesian palm oil industry – the ISPO certification framework – however compliance with this scheme, as well as its enforcement,
is very weak."
Assuming that the timeline for the IEU-CEPA provided by the Deputy Minister for Economic Cooperation and Investment Coordination, Edi Prio Pambudi, is met and the EU allows free market access to Indonesian palm oil, the net results should not disappoint anyone who supports social media campaigns against palm oil.
It has been known for years that the global palm oil industry has been shifting from markets like the European Union, that demanded sustainability, to markets with less discerning consumers.
Back in 2023, we rebuffed the claim by “orangutan caring” netizens that the fate of orangutans was in their hands. It's not. It's in the hands of Indonesia which is now confirmed by the global palm oil market report from New Foresight:
“Demand for palm oil is moving toward markets that care far less about deforestation, certification, and smallholder rights, according to the Global Palm Oil Outlook, a report from management consultancy NewForesight commissioned by IDH, a Netherlands based sustainable trade organization.
The result is a two-tier market. Traceable, certified supply is concentrating among a shrinking pool of sustainability-sensitive buyers, while a much larger share of volume flows toward markets where price, not sustainability credentials, decides who buys what. As evidence, the report points to 5.2 million tonnes of certified palm oil sold in 2024 without any sustainability claim attached, meaning the certification effectively went to waste once the oil entered less demanding supply chains.”
What this means to the orangutans in Indonesia is that palm oil producing companies who paid into protecting orangutans with the RSPO saw no returns from their investments.
The bottomline here is that palm oil producers cannot sustain their best intentions to save orangutans with the RSPO if their buyers are not interested.
Palm oil free campaigns backfiring on orangutans
It is unfortunate for the orangutans that the loudest of their champions from the European Union to folks on Facebook thought palm oil free products would save orangutans.
The biggest market for certified sustainable palm oil based on data from the RSPO, is shrinking.
The Netherlands as the biggest European importer of palm oil is a distant fourth in global demand for palm oil based on data published by World's Top Exports.
The downward trend for Europe’s demand for palm oil will continue in 2026-2027 as the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) is forecasting that the region will only buy 2.6 million tonnes of the commodity in 2026-27.
That would be the seventh consecutive year of declining imports, falling from 7.11 million tonnes in 2019-2020.
Part of the reason for this sharp decline in the EU’s palm oil imports can be attributed to campaigns against palm oil from the likes of NORAD funded groups Rainforest Foundation Norway (Regnskogfondet) or Transport and Environment or even Facebookers like Bev Luff whose Palm oil free certification used orangutans as donkeys to pull their wares.
As the Super El Nino of 2026 burns through millions of hectares in Canada and experts pin this Godzilla El Nino on fossil fuels, groups that claim unabashedly to save orangutans have come out bowl in hand to hand to ask for money.
It’s a race against time for Indonesia’s orangutans declared the Orangutan Conservancy.
Other groups like Orangutan Republik are also begging for money to fight El Nino as a growing threat against orangutans in Kalimantan.
If Indonesian forests and orangutans are a money maker, these groups might do better to beg in Norway which has plenty of fossil fueled funds to spare anyone willing to speak against palm oil.
In the meantime, falling demand for not only certified palm oil but palm oil overall has forced Indonesia to eat excess palm oil which puts the fate of orangutans firmly in Indonesian hands as the Global Palm Oil Outlook report found.
Indonesian palm oil consumption grew by 39% between the 2019 and 2020 season and the 2024 and 2025 forecast, driven largely by biodiesel and industrial use. Over that same stretch, consumption fell by 44% in the European Union and by 31% in China, two markets that historically drove certification and traceability requirements.
What this means in more morbid terms is that hungry farmers in Indonesia whose harvests are threatened by orangutans may kill orangutans as this comprehensive assessment of Sumatran orangutans says.
“In several meta-populations, declines substantially exceeded proportional forest loss, implicating killing, conflict, and fragmentation as compounding drivers.”
Survival of orangutans beyond palm oil
The report from New Foresight concluded with a question: What comes next?
If the only problem with palm oil is saving orangutans from the environmental effects of palm oil production, the answers are clear.
- Acknowledge the Indonesian palm oil industry's contention that sustainable palm oil is not merely a response to global pressure but a strategic necessity for Indonesia.
- Many positive measures have been put into place to ensure the survival of wild orangutans in Indonesia and Malaysia but these measures may be inadequate against the ravages of climate change.
These measures are critically important to saving orangutans now that the EU looks set to fail its climate obligations according to Climate Action Tracker. Europe's continued dependence on fossil fuels to drive its economies is a bigger threat to the survival of orangutans than its use of palm oil.
Climate change has become a direct threat to the survival of the world’s rarest great ape, according to scientists, after landslides triggered by an unusually intense storm killed an estimated 58 critically endangered Tapanuli orangutans (Pongo tapanuliensis) in Indonesia’s Batang Toru ecosystem. Mongabay
If European voters are truly concerned about the survival of orangutans, they should pressure pony loving Ursula von der Leyen to listen to concerned experts.
Once it's understood that it's fossil fueled climate change represents a great threat to orangutans, its quite obvious that NGOs who rely on funding from fossil fuel funds like The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation should dissociate themselves from NORAD and firmly say No.
The survival of critically endangered wildlife like wolves in Norway or orangutans in Indonesia could learn from the Malaysian state of Sarawak where it wasn't our hands or their hands but ours.
Population of Bornean orangutans has stabilised at roughly 2,000 individuals, a milestone officials credit to decades of habitat protection and coordinated conservation with NGOs, scientists, communities and industry.
Published September 2026 CSPO Watch
As Southeast Asia chokes on haze caused by illegal land clearing for Indonesian palm oil and timber industries, the real test of the EU-Indonesia trade deal will be palm oil as observed by Fadhil Hasan in the EU Observer.
“Upon entry into force, 1.9 million tonnes of crude and refined palm oil will enter the EU tariff-free, rising to 2.479 million tonnes from the ninth year.”
The caveat here is the sticky issue of sustainability standards where the requirements of the EUDR may yet choke tariff free flow of Indonesian palm oil into the EU.
As Fadhil Hasan opined:
“One hurdle remains: ratification. Views within Indonesian industry are not uniform. Some sectors would prefer that ongoing WTO disputes be resolved and that certain EU measures, including aspects of the Renewable Energy Directive, be brought into conformity with international obligations before the agreement is signed. These concerns are legitimate.”
Aside from the Indonesian palm oil industry's view on open market access for palm-based biofuels, the industry could face a bigger obstacle in open market access under the IEU-CEPA if the EU decides to impose the criteria of legality on imports of palm oil from Indonesia.
According to this report on the legality of Indonesian palm oil published by Client Earth:
"Corruption has emerged as a systemic challenge in this context. To its credit, the Indonesian government has developed a detailed statutory framework to address the systemic social, environmental and regulatory issues plaguing the Indonesian palm oil industry – the ISPO certification framework – however compliance with this scheme, as well as its enforcement,
is very weak."
Assuming that the timeline for the IEU-CEPA provided by the Deputy Minister for Economic Cooperation and Investment Coordination, Edi Prio Pambudi, is met and the EU allows free market access to Indonesian palm oil, the net results should not disappoint anyone who supports social media campaigns against palm oil.
It has been known for years that the global palm oil industry has been shifting from markets like the European Union, that demanded sustainability, to markets with less discerning consumers.
Back in 2023, we rebuffed the claim by “orangutan caring” netizens that the fate of orangutans was in their hands. It's not. It's in the hands of Indonesia which is now confirmed by the global palm oil market report from New Foresight:
“Demand for palm oil is moving toward markets that care far less about deforestation, certification, and smallholder rights, according to the Global Palm Oil Outlook, a report from management consultancy NewForesight commissioned by IDH, a Netherlands based sustainable trade organization.
The result is a two-tier market. Traceable, certified supply is concentrating among a shrinking pool of sustainability-sensitive buyers, while a much larger share of volume flows toward markets where price, not sustainability credentials, decides who buys what. As evidence, the report points to 5.2 million tonnes of certified palm oil sold in 2024 without any sustainability claim attached, meaning the certification effectively went to waste once the oil entered less demanding supply chains.”
What this means to the orangutans in Indonesia is that palm oil producing companies who paid into protecting orangutans with the RSPO saw no returns from their investments.
The bottomline here is that palm oil producers cannot sustain their best intentions to save orangutans with the RSPO if their buyers are not interested.
Palm oil free campaigns backfiring on orangutans
It is unfortunate for the orangutans that the loudest of their champions from the European Union to folks on Facebook thought palm oil free products would save orangutans.
The biggest market for certified sustainable palm oil based on data from the RSPO, is shrinking.
The Netherlands as the biggest European importer of palm oil is a distant fourth in global demand for palm oil based on data published by World's Top Exports.
The downward trend for Europe’s demand for palm oil will continue in 2026-2027 as the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) is forecasting that the region will only buy 2.6 million tonnes of the commodity in 2026-27.
That would be the seventh consecutive year of declining imports, falling from 7.11 million tonnes in 2019-2020.
Part of the reason for this sharp decline in the EU’s palm oil imports can be attributed to campaigns against palm oil from the likes of NORAD funded groups Rainforest Foundation Norway (Regnskogfondet) or Transport and Environment or even Facebookers like Bev Luff whose Palm oil free certification used orangutans as donkeys to pull their wares.
As the Super El Nino of 2026 burns through millions of hectares in Canada and experts pin this Godzilla El Nino on fossil fuels, groups that claim unabashedly to save orangutans have come out bowl in hand to hand to ask for money.
It’s a race against time for Indonesia’s orangutans declared the Orangutan Conservancy.
Other groups like Orangutan Republik are also begging for money to fight El Nino as a growing threat against orangutans in Kalimantan.
If Indonesian forests and orangutans are a money maker, these groups might do better to beg in Norway which has plenty of fossil fueled funds to spare anyone willing to speak against palm oil.
In the meantime, falling demand for not only certified palm oil but palm oil overall has forced Indonesia to eat excess palm oil which puts the fate of orangutans firmly in Indonesian hands as the Global Palm Oil Outlook report found.
Indonesian palm oil consumption grew by 39% between the 2019 and 2020 season and the 2024 and 2025 forecast, driven largely by biodiesel and industrial use. Over that same stretch, consumption fell by 44% in the European Union and by 31% in China, two markets that historically drove certification and traceability requirements.
What this means in more morbid terms is that hungry farmers in Indonesia whose harvests are threatened by orangutans may kill orangutans as this comprehensive assessment of Sumatran orangutans says.
“In several meta-populations, declines substantially exceeded proportional forest loss, implicating killing, conflict, and fragmentation as compounding drivers.”
Survival of orangutans beyond palm oil
The report from New Foresight concluded with a question: What comes next?
If the only problem with palm oil is saving orangutans from the environmental effects of palm oil production, the answers are clear.
- Acknowledge the Indonesian palm oil industry's contention that sustainable palm oil is not merely a response to global pressure but a strategic necessity for Indonesia.
- Many positive measures have been put into place to ensure the survival of wild orangutans in Indonesia and Malaysia but these measures may be inadequate against the ravages of climate change.
These measures are critically important to saving orangutans now that the EU looks set to fail its climate obligations according to Climate Action Tracker. Europe's continued dependence on fossil fuels to drive its economies is a bigger threat to the survival of orangutans than its use of palm oil.
Climate change has become a direct threat to the survival of the world’s rarest great ape, according to scientists, after landslides triggered by an unusually intense storm killed an estimated 58 critically endangered Tapanuli orangutans (Pongo tapanuliensis) in Indonesia’s Batang Toru ecosystem. Mongabay
If European voters are truly concerned about the survival of orangutans, they should pressure pony loving Ursula von der Leyen to listen to concerned experts.
- 200+ organisations and industry associations demand President von der Leyen: Make this fossil fuel crisis Europe’s last
- A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future warned World Weather Attribution.
- UN Climate Chief: “the climate crisis is now a continent-wide economic security emergency”
Once it's understood that it's fossil fueled climate change represents a great threat to orangutans, its quite obvious that NGOs who rely on funding from fossil fuel funds like The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation should dissociate themselves from NORAD and firmly say No.
The survival of critically endangered wildlife like wolves in Norway or orangutans in Indonesia could learn from the Malaysian state of Sarawak where it wasn't our hands or their hands but ours.
Population of Bornean orangutans has stabilised at roughly 2,000 individuals, a milestone officials credit to decades of habitat protection and coordinated conservation with NGOs, scientists, communities and industry.
Published September 2026 CSPO Watch