Palm Oil, Seedoils, EUDR and Trade Deals in 2025
Political upheavals around the world and social change movements will impact the palm oil industry in 2025.
The biggest changes are expected to come from the US which may challenge the European Union’s green demands of imports and a fast development movement against seedoils like soy.
The biggest changes are expected to come from the US which may challenge the European Union’s green demands of imports and a fast development movement against seedoils like soy.
Big U.S. soybean crop weighs on canola prices: Producer
Is Soy oil the New Palm Oil?
Soybean oil appears to be ready to supplant palm oil in terms of being bad for people and planet
Are seedoils bad for health?
The raging debates in the US focused around Robert Kennedy Jr.’s plan to tackle chronic disease among Americans could well settle the arguments on the health impact of seedoils.
Soybean oil as the most consumed cooking oil in the US is now being blamed for chronic diseases among Americans.
Studies on soybean oil like this one from 2015 indicated that soybean oil is a factor in obesity, an American health epidemic that is being blamed for chronic diseases.
A study published in 2018 on Omega-6 high vegetable oils like soybean oil as a driver of coronary heart disease by James J DiNicolantonio and James H O’Keefe concluded that:
“The consumption of the omega-6 polyunsaturated fat linoleic acid has dramatically increased in the western world primarily in the form of vegetable oils. OxLDL is thought to play an important role in atherosclerosis formation; however, it is the oxidised linoleic acid contained in LDL that leads to harmful OXLAMs, which induces atherosclerosis and CHD. Thus, reducing the amount of dietary linoleic acid, mainly from industrial vegetable/seed oils, will reduce the amount of linoleic acid in LDL and likely reduce oxLDL as well as the risk for CHDcoronary heart disease.
In summary, numerous lines of evidence show that the omega-6 polyunsaturated fat linoleic acid promotes oxidative stress, oxidised LDL, chronic low-grade inflammation and atherosclerosis, and is likely a major dietary culprit for causing CHD, especially when consumed in the form of industrial seed oils commonly referred to as ‘vegetable oils’.”
A more recent report published by the University of California-Riverside in 2020 warned that America's most widely consumed oil causes genetic changes in the brain. The report linked soybean oil to metabolic and neurological which not only leads to obesity and diabetes, but could also affect neurological conditions like autism, Alzheimer's disease, anxiety, and depression.
A new study on soybean oil by the University of California-Riverside added colitis to the many negative health impacts of consuming high linoleic acid.
Most processed foods in the U.S. contain soybean oil, perhaps explaining why many Americans have more than the recommended daily allowance for linoleic acid. Further, most restaurants in the U.S. use soybean oil because it is relatively inexpensive.
The latest study on seedoils and whether they cause cancer showed a link between high consumption of seedoils and how it contributes to cancerous growth.
The larger issue, as Dr. Yeatman explains, is that having too many omega-6 fatty acids in your diet and not enough anti-inflammatory omega-3 fatty acids may keep those omega-3s from doing their job (and, in this case, fighting tumors). This could allow tumor mutations “to take a foothold when otherwise they might be destroyed,” Dr. Yeatman says.
That should be enough evidence on the negative health impacts of soybean oil to warrant further action on the part of the new US administration to find solutions to the health crisis.
The debates on seed oils in the US have spilled over to India where the Times of India reported “Cooking with seedoils? Why experts are warning against it.”
Are seedoils better for the planet?
On the environmental front, Ursula von der Leyen’s desperate approval of the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal could propel soy to new heights of infamy.
According to Greenpeace:
Revelations have included that the deal will: breach EU climate laws, boost trade in plastics and undermine efforts to agree a Global Plastics Treaty, facilitate the entry of a toxic cocktail of banned pesticides into the EU, propel destructive agribusiness and destroy precious ecosystems in South America.
Von der Leyen may have grown a thick skin to the manure dumping of French farmers and Greenpeace’s criticisms but the protests against the EU Mercosur deal includes “strange bedfellows” as described by the Associated Press.
Cargill, Bunge and ADM are all too familiar with soy based deforestation and climate change. They are the same culprits who were previously caught with having their hands in deforestation for soy.
Bunge bought soy from biggest destroyers of Brazilian savanna in 2020.
An investigation by Global Witness in 2021 reveals that ADM, Bunge and Cargill, trading giants central to the global agri-food system, are fuelling human rights abuses caused by soy suppliers in conflict with traditional communities in Brazil’s Bahia state.
Cargill, the world’s biggest grain trader is facing a first-ever legal challenge in the United States over its failure to remove deforestation and human rights abuses from its soya supply chain in Brazil.
Grand commitments have been made by ADM to strengthen no-deforestation policies which were then sold by by investment firm Green Century Funds.
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) announced in 2023 that their members including Cargill, Bunge and ADM have adopted new measures to eliminate deforestation and native vegetation conversion in Brazil’s Cerrado region.
Unfortunately for Green Century Funds and WBCSD, Bunge and Cargill were still linked to buying deforestation soy in 2024.
Preferential Soy to make a mockery of EU Green Deals
It will interesting to see how the EU deals with soy deforestation in 2025.
Having once been cowed by Trump in 2019 over soybeans for biofuels, the EU faces a new demand from Trump to buy American oil and gas.
IF the EU buckles under Trump’s overall demands, will a preferential class of soy be applied to US soy?
What happens if the US pulls out again from the Paris climate agreement?
What if Argentina follows suit and withdraws from the Paris agreement which was an essential clause in the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal? As a major exporter to the EU, Argentina’s soy exports have been linked to deforestation.
Assuming Argentina does not withdraw from the Paris agreement and the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal survives all the challenges, will the EU extend the same courtesies to trade partners in Indonesia and Malaysia where palm oil has been a sticky issue in trade talks?
Indonesia’s new president Prabowo has reaffirmed the country’s commitment to the Paris agreement. Malaysia has been steadfast in its commitment to the Paris agreement which it ratified in 2016.
Should MERCOSUR countries succeed in a possible legal challenge to EUDR, will the toned down EUDR also be applied to other trade partners?
Will the country benchmarking for deforestation risks under the EUDR be crop specific or country specific? Australia poses a great challenge to the EU as a top source of rapeseed, Australia has also been reported as one of the worst countries for deforestation.
Will Qatar’s threat to shut off its LNG supplies to Europe as a protest against due diligence requirements further weaken the EU’s Green Ambitions?
Stay tuned as the situations develop in 2025.
Published December 2024 CSPO Watch
Soybean oil appears to be ready to supplant palm oil in terms of being bad for people and planet
- Where palm oil was being accused of being bad due to environmental reasons, soybean oil is fast gaining notoriety for its environmental impact on tropical forests in South America.
- Once derided as a “cheap oil” soybean oil has now become even cheaper than palm oil in the global trade for vegetable oils.
- Palm Oil Free certifications as provided by pro orangutan groups in Australia have bitten the dust as Seed Oil Free Certification gains traction in the US
- The WWF which talks up the ubiquitous presence of palm oil in consumer products has been exposed less than honest.
Are seedoils bad for health?
The raging debates in the US focused around Robert Kennedy Jr.’s plan to tackle chronic disease among Americans could well settle the arguments on the health impact of seedoils.
Soybean oil as the most consumed cooking oil in the US is now being blamed for chronic diseases among Americans.
Studies on soybean oil like this one from 2015 indicated that soybean oil is a factor in obesity, an American health epidemic that is being blamed for chronic diseases.
A study published in 2018 on Omega-6 high vegetable oils like soybean oil as a driver of coronary heart disease by James J DiNicolantonio and James H O’Keefe concluded that:
“The consumption of the omega-6 polyunsaturated fat linoleic acid has dramatically increased in the western world primarily in the form of vegetable oils. OxLDL is thought to play an important role in atherosclerosis formation; however, it is the oxidised linoleic acid contained in LDL that leads to harmful OXLAMs, which induces atherosclerosis and CHD. Thus, reducing the amount of dietary linoleic acid, mainly from industrial vegetable/seed oils, will reduce the amount of linoleic acid in LDL and likely reduce oxLDL as well as the risk for CHDcoronary heart disease.
In summary, numerous lines of evidence show that the omega-6 polyunsaturated fat linoleic acid promotes oxidative stress, oxidised LDL, chronic low-grade inflammation and atherosclerosis, and is likely a major dietary culprit for causing CHD, especially when consumed in the form of industrial seed oils commonly referred to as ‘vegetable oils’.”
A more recent report published by the University of California-Riverside in 2020 warned that America's most widely consumed oil causes genetic changes in the brain. The report linked soybean oil to metabolic and neurological which not only leads to obesity and diabetes, but could also affect neurological conditions like autism, Alzheimer's disease, anxiety, and depression.
A new study on soybean oil by the University of California-Riverside added colitis to the many negative health impacts of consuming high linoleic acid.
Most processed foods in the U.S. contain soybean oil, perhaps explaining why many Americans have more than the recommended daily allowance for linoleic acid. Further, most restaurants in the U.S. use soybean oil because it is relatively inexpensive.
The latest study on seedoils and whether they cause cancer showed a link between high consumption of seedoils and how it contributes to cancerous growth.
The larger issue, as Dr. Yeatman explains, is that having too many omega-6 fatty acids in your diet and not enough anti-inflammatory omega-3 fatty acids may keep those omega-3s from doing their job (and, in this case, fighting tumors). This could allow tumor mutations “to take a foothold when otherwise they might be destroyed,” Dr. Yeatman says.
That should be enough evidence on the negative health impacts of soybean oil to warrant further action on the part of the new US administration to find solutions to the health crisis.
The debates on seed oils in the US have spilled over to India where the Times of India reported “Cooking with seedoils? Why experts are warning against it.”
Are seedoils better for the planet?
On the environmental front, Ursula von der Leyen’s desperate approval of the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal could propel soy to new heights of infamy.
According to Greenpeace:
Revelations have included that the deal will: breach EU climate laws, boost trade in plastics and undermine efforts to agree a Global Plastics Treaty, facilitate the entry of a toxic cocktail of banned pesticides into the EU, propel destructive agribusiness and destroy precious ecosystems in South America.
Von der Leyen may have grown a thick skin to the manure dumping of French farmers and Greenpeace’s criticisms but the protests against the EU Mercosur deal includes “strange bedfellows” as described by the Associated Press.
Cargill, Bunge and ADM are all too familiar with soy based deforestation and climate change. They are the same culprits who were previously caught with having their hands in deforestation for soy.
Bunge bought soy from biggest destroyers of Brazilian savanna in 2020.
An investigation by Global Witness in 2021 reveals that ADM, Bunge and Cargill, trading giants central to the global agri-food system, are fuelling human rights abuses caused by soy suppliers in conflict with traditional communities in Brazil’s Bahia state.
Cargill, the world’s biggest grain trader is facing a first-ever legal challenge in the United States over its failure to remove deforestation and human rights abuses from its soya supply chain in Brazil.
Grand commitments have been made by ADM to strengthen no-deforestation policies which were then sold by by investment firm Green Century Funds.
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) announced in 2023 that their members including Cargill, Bunge and ADM have adopted new measures to eliminate deforestation and native vegetation conversion in Brazil’s Cerrado region.
Unfortunately for Green Century Funds and WBCSD, Bunge and Cargill were still linked to buying deforestation soy in 2024.
Preferential Soy to make a mockery of EU Green Deals
It will interesting to see how the EU deals with soy deforestation in 2025.
Having once been cowed by Trump in 2019 over soybeans for biofuels, the EU faces a new demand from Trump to buy American oil and gas.
IF the EU buckles under Trump’s overall demands, will a preferential class of soy be applied to US soy?
What happens if the US pulls out again from the Paris climate agreement?
What if Argentina follows suit and withdraws from the Paris agreement which was an essential clause in the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal? As a major exporter to the EU, Argentina’s soy exports have been linked to deforestation.
Assuming Argentina does not withdraw from the Paris agreement and the EU-MERCOSUR trade deal survives all the challenges, will the EU extend the same courtesies to trade partners in Indonesia and Malaysia where palm oil has been a sticky issue in trade talks?
Indonesia’s new president Prabowo has reaffirmed the country’s commitment to the Paris agreement. Malaysia has been steadfast in its commitment to the Paris agreement which it ratified in 2016.
Should MERCOSUR countries succeed in a possible legal challenge to EUDR, will the toned down EUDR also be applied to other trade partners?
Will the country benchmarking for deforestation risks under the EUDR be crop specific or country specific? Australia poses a great challenge to the EU as a top source of rapeseed, Australia has also been reported as one of the worst countries for deforestation.
Will Qatar’s threat to shut off its LNG supplies to Europe as a protest against due diligence requirements further weaken the EU’s Green Ambitions?
Stay tuned as the situations develop in 2025.
Published December 2024 CSPO Watch